The 100 most-cited articles in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018

A census of the biomass on Earth is key for understanding the structure and dynamics of the biosphere. However, a global, quantitative view of how the biomass of different taxa compare with one another is still lacking. Here, we assemble the overall biomass composition of the biosphere, establishing a census of the ≈550 gigatons of carbon (Gt C) of biomass distributed among all of the kingdoms of life. We find that the kingdoms of life concentrate at different locations on the planet; plants (≈450 Gt C, the dominant kingdom) are primarily terrestrial, whereas animals (≈2 Gt C) are mainly marine, and bacteria (≈70 Gt C) and archaea (≈7 Gt C) are predominantly located in deep subsurface environments. We show that terrestrial biomass is about two orders of magnitude higher than marine biomass and estimate a total of ≈6 Gt C of marine biota, doubling the previous estimated quantity. Our analysis reveals that the global marine biomass pyramid contains more consumers than producers, thus increasing the scope of previous observations on inverse food pyramids. Finally, we highlight that the…

= 0.004). In high-income countries (HICs), although overall consumption increased modestly, DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day fell 4%, and there was no correlation with GDPPC. Of particular concern was the rapid increase in the use of last-resort compounds, both in HICs and LMICs, such as glycylcyclines, oxazolidinones, carbapenems, and polymyxins. Projections of global antibiotic consumption in 2030, assuming no policy changes, were up to 200% higher than the 42 billion DDDs estimated in 2015. Although antibiotic consumption rates in most LMICs remain lower than in HICs despite higher bacterial disease burden, consumption in LMICs is rapidly converging to rates similar to HICs. Reducing global consumption is critical for reducing the threat of antibiotic resistance, but reduction efforts must balance access limitations in LMICs and take account of local and global resistance patterns.

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological…

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM 2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM 2.5 -mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM 2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries—the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5–10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9–8.5) and 120% larger than…

Progress in science relies in part on generating hypotheses with existing observations and testing hypotheses with new observations. This distinction between postdiction and prediction is appreciated conceptually but is not respected in practice. Mistaking generation of postdictions with testing of predictions reduces the credibility of research findings. However, ordinary biases in human reasoning, such as hindsight bias, make it hard to avoid this mistake. An effective solution is to define the research questions and analysis plan before observing the research outcomes-a process called preregistration. Preregistration distinguishes analyses and outcomes that result from predictions from those that result from postdictions. A variety of practical strategies are available to make the best possible use of preregistration in circumstances that fall short of the ideal application, such as when the data are preexisting. Services are now available for preregistration across all disciplines, facilitating a rapid increase in the practice. Widespread adoption of preregistration will…

There is mounting concern that social media sites contribute to political polarization by creating "echo chambers" that insulate people from opposing views about current events. We surveyed a large sample of Democrats and Republicans who visit Twitter at least three times each week about a range of social policy issues. One week later, we randomly assigned respondents to a treatment condition in which they were offered financial incentives to follow a Twitter bot for 1 month that exposed them to messages from those with opposing political ideologies (e.g., elected officials, opinion leaders, media organizations, and nonprofit groups). Respondents were resurveyed at the end of the month to measure the effect of this treatment, and at regular intervals throughout the study period to monitor treatment compliance. We find that Republicans who followed a liberal Twitter bot became substantially more conservative posttreatment. Democrats exhibited slight increases in liberal attitudes after following a conservative Twitter bot, although these effects are not statistically significant.…

Significance Drastic air pollution control in China since 2013 has achieved sharp decreases in fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but ozone pollution has not improved. After removing the effect of meteorological variability, we find that surface ozone has increased in megacity clusters of China, notably Beijing and Shanghai. The increasing trend cannot be simply explained by changes in anthropogenic precursor [NO x and volatile organic compound (VOC)] emissions, particularly in North China Plain (NCP). The most important cause of the increasing ozone in NCP appears to be the decrease in PM 2.5 , slowing down the sink of hydroperoxy radicals and thus speeding up ozone production. Decreasing ozone in the future will require a combination of NO x and VOC emission controls to overcome the effect of decreasing PM 2.5 .

Developing algorithms for solving high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) has been an exceedingly difficult task for a long time, due to the notoriously difficult problem known as the "curse of dimensionality." This paper introduces a deep learning-based approach that can handle general high-dimensional parabolic PDEs. To this end, the PDEs are reformulated using backward stochastic differential equations and the gradient of the unknown solution is approximated by neural networks, very much in the spirit of deep reinforcement learning with the gradient acting as the policy function. Numerical results on examples including the nonlinear Black-Scholes equation, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, and the Allen-Cahn equation suggest that the proposed algorithm is quite effective in high dimensions, in terms of both accuracy and cost. This opens up possibilities in economics, finance, operational research, and physics, by considering all participating agents, assets, resources, or particles together at the same time, instead of making ad hoc assumptions on their…

The decline of cognitive function occurs with aging, but the mechanisms responsible are unknown. Astrocytes instruct the formation, maturation, and elimination of synapses, and impairment of these functions has been implicated in many diseases. These findings raise the question of whether astrocyte dysfunction could contribute to cognitive decline in aging. We used the Bac-Trap method to perform RNA sequencing of astrocytes from different brain regions across the lifespan of the mouse. We found that astrocytes have region-specific transcriptional identities that change with age in a region-dependent manner. We validated our findings using fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative PCR. Detailed analysis of the differentially expressed genes in aging revealed that aged astrocytes take on a reactive phenotype of neuroinflammatory A1-like reactive astrocytes. Hippocampal and striatal astrocytes up-regulated a greater number of reactive astrocyte genes compared with cortical astrocytes. Moreover, aged brains formed many more A1 reactive astrocytes in response to the…

This study evaluates evidence pertaining to popular narratives explaining the American public's support for Donald J. Trump in the 2016 presidential election. First, using unique representative probability samples of the American public, tracking the same individuals from 2012 to 2016, I examine the "left behind" thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes). Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America's global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past. Results do not support an interpretation of the election based on pocketbook economic concerns. Instead, the shorter relative distance of people's own views from the Republican candidate on trade and China corresponded to greater mass support for Trump in…

Significance When houses are built close to forests or other types of natural vegetation, they pose two problems related to wildfires. First, there will be more wildfires due to human ignitions. Second, wildfires that occur will pose a greater risk to lives and homes, they will be hard to fight, and letting natural fires burn becomes impossible. We examined the number of houses that have been built since 1990 in the United States in or near natural vegetation, in an area known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI), and found that a large number of houses have been built there. Approximately one in three houses and one in ten hectares are now in the WUI. These WUI growth trends will exacerbate wildfire problems in the future.

Having accurate, detailed, and up-to-date information about the location and behavior of animals in the wild would improve our ability to study and conserve ecosystems. We investigate the ability to automatically, accurately, and inexpensively collect such data, which could help catalyze the transformation of many fields of ecology, wildlife biology, zoology, conservation biology, and animal behavior into "big data" sciences. Motion-sensor "camera traps" enable collecting wildlife pictures inexpensively, unobtrusively, and frequently. However, extracting information from these pictures remains an expensive, time-consuming, manual task. We demonstrate that such information can be automatically extracted by deep learning, a cutting-edge type of artificial intelligence. We train deep convolutional neural networks to identify, count, and describe the behaviors of 48 species in the 3.2 million-image Snapshot Serengeti dataset. Our deep neural networks automatically identify animals with >93.8% accuracy, and we expect that number to improve rapidly in years to come. More importantly, if…

Significance Aerobic life in humans imposes the hazard of excess oxidation in cell and tissue components that may compromise cell function and viability. The formation and accumulation of oxidized products in biomolecules such as proteins and lipids are observed in various pathologies and during the normal aging process. This review article aims to integrate some early and remarkable discoveries in the field, with more recent developments that helped to define a causative role of oxygen radicals, nitric oxide, and peroxynitrite in human physiology and pathology. These aspects of human redox biochemistry contribute to the understanding of the molecular basis of diseases and aging and open avenues for the development of preventive and therapeutic strategies in molecular medicine.

Significance Satellite altimetry has shown that global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ∼3 ± 0.4 mm/y since 1993. Using the altimeter record coupled with careful consideration of interannual and decadal variability as well as potential instrument errors, we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 , which agrees well with climate model projections. If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea-level rise by 2100 (∼65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.

Only for ergodic processes will inferences based on group-level data generalize to individual experience or behavior. Because human social and psychological processes typically have an individually variable and time-varying nature, they are unlikely to be ergodic. In this paper, six studies with a repeated-measure design were used for symmetric comparisons of interindividual and intraindividual variation. Our results delineate the potential scope and impact of nonergodic data in human subjects research. Analyses across six samples (with 87-94 participants and an equal number of assessments per participant) showed some degree of agreement in central tendency estimates (mean) between groups and individuals across constructs and data collection paradigms. However, the variance around the expected value was two to four times larger within individuals than within groups. This suggests that literatures in social and medical sciences may overestimate the accuracy of aggregated statistical estimates. This observation could have serious consequences for how we understand the consistency…

Across plants and animals, host-associated microbial communities play fundamental roles in host nutrition, development, and immunity. The factors that shape host–microbiome interactions are poorly understood, yet essential for understanding the evolution and ecology of these symbioses. Plant roots assemble two distinct microbial compartments from surrounding soil: the rhizosphere (microbes surrounding roots) and the endosphere (microbes within roots). Root-associated microbes were key for the evolution of land plants and underlie fundamental ecosystem processes. However, it is largely unknown how plant evolution has shaped root microbial communities, and in turn, how these microbes affect plant ecology, such as the ability to mitigate biotic and abiotic stressors. Here we show that variation among 30 angiosperm species, which have diverged for up to 140 million years, affects root bacterial diversity and composition. Greater similarity in root microbiomes between hosts leads to negative effects on plant performance through soil feedback, with specific microbial taxa in the…

201-F6, was shown to exhibit the rare ability to grow on PET as a major carbon and energy source. Central to its PET biodegradation capability is a secreted PETase (PET-digesting enzyme). Here, we present a 0.92 Å resolution X-ray crystal structure of PETase, which reveals features common to both cutinases and lipases. PETase retains the ancestral α/β-hydrolase fold but exhibits a more open active-site cleft than homologous cutinases. By narrowing the binding cleft via mutation of two active-site residues to conserved amino acids in cutinases, we surprisingly observe improved PET degradation, suggesting that PETase is not fully optimized for crystalline PET degradation, despite presumably evolving in a PET-rich environment. Additionally, we show that PETase degrades another semiaromatic polyester, polyethylene-2,5-furandicarboxylate (PEF), which is an emerging, bioderived PET replacement with improved barrier properties. In contrast, PETase does not degrade aliphatic polyesters, suggesting that it is generally an aromatic polyesterase. These findings suggest that additional protein…

Cancer histology reflects underlying molecular processes and disease progression and contains rich phenotypic information that is predictive of patient outcomes. In this study, we show a computational approach for learning patient outcomes from digital pathology images using deep learning to combine the power of adaptive machine learning algorithms with traditional survival models. We illustrate how these survival convolutional neural networks (SCNNs) can integrate information from both histology images and genomic biomarkers into a single unified framework to predict time-to-event outcomes and show prediction accuracy that surpasses the current clinical paradigm for predicting the overall survival of patients diagnosed with glioma. We use statistical sampling techniques to address challenges in learning survival from histology images, including tumor heterogeneity and the need for large training cohorts. We also provide insights into the prediction mechanisms of SCNNs, using heat map visualization to show that SCNNs recognize important structures, like microvascular proliferation,…

Word embeddings are a powerful machine-learning framework that represents each English word by a vector. The geometric relationship between these vectors captures meaningful semantic relationships between the corresponding words. In this paper, we develop a framework to demonstrate how the temporal dynamics of the embedding helps to quantify changes in stereotypes and attitudes toward women and ethnic minorities in the 20th and 21st centuries in the United States. We integrate word embeddings trained on 100 y of text data with the US Census to show that changes in the embedding track closely with demographic and occupation shifts over time. The embedding captures societal shifts-e.g., the women's movement in the 1960s and Asian immigration into the United States-and also illuminates how specific adjectives and occupations became more closely associated with certain populations over time. Our framework for temporal analysis of word embedding opens up a fruitful intersection between machine learning and quantitative social science.

The representation of nonlinear subgrid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but only for short-term simulations of at most a few years because of computational limitations. Here we demonstrate that deep learning can be used to capture many advantages of cloud-resolving modeling at a fraction of the computational cost. We train a deep neural network to represent all atmospheric subgrid processes in a climate model by learning from a multiscale model in which convection is treated explicitly. The trained neural network then replaces the traditional subgrid parameterizations in a global general circulation model in which it freely interacts with the resolved dynamics and the surface-flux scheme. The prognostic multiyear simulations are stable and closely reproduce not only the mean climate of the cloud-resolving simulation but also key aspects of variability, including precipitation extremes and the equatorial wave spectrum.…

Significance Many proteins that perform important biological functions are completely or partially disordered under physiological conditions. Molecular dynamics simulations could be a powerful tool for the structural characterization of such proteins, but it has been unclear whether the physical models (force fields) used in simulations are sufficiently accurate. Here, we systematically compare the accuracy of a number of different force fields in simulations of both ordered and disordered proteins, finding that each force field has strengths and limitations. We then describe a force field that substantially improves on the state-of-the-art accuracy for simulations of disordered proteins without sacrificing accuracy for folded proteins, thus broadening the range of biological systems amenable to molecular dynamics simulations.

Significance Plant roots nurture a large diversity of soil microbes via exudation of chemical compounds into the rhizosphere. In turn, beneficial root microbiota promote plant growth and immunity. The root-specific transcription factor MYB72 has emerged as a central regulator in this process. Here, we show that MYB72 regulates the excretion of the coumarin scopoletin, an iron-mobilizing phenolic compound with selective antimicrobial activity that shapes the root-associated microbial community. Selected soil-borne fungal pathogens appeared to be highly sensitive to the antimicrobial activity of scopoletin, while two MYB72- inducing beneficial rhizobacteria were tolerant. Our results suggest that probiotic root-associated microbes that activate the iron-deficiency response during colonization stimulate MYB72-dependent excretion of scopoletin, thereby potentially improving their niche establishment and enhancing plant growth and protection.

Increasing our understanding of Earth's biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet's organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth's eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. We also describe scientific and organizational…

China's terrestrial ecosystems have functioned as important carbon sinks. However, previous estimates of carbon budgets have included large uncertainties owing to the limitations of sample size, multiple data sources, and inconsistent methodologies. In this study, we conducted an intensive field campaign involving 14,371 field plots to investigate all sectors of carbon stocks in China's forests, shrublands, grasslands, and croplands to better estimate the regional and national carbon pools and to explore the biogeographical patterns and potential drivers of these pools. The total carbon pool in these four ecosystems was 79.24 ± 2.42 Pg C, of which 82.9% was stored in soil (to a depth of 1 m), 16.5% in biomass, and 0.60% in litter. Forests, shrublands, grasslands, and croplands contained 30.83 ± 1.57 Pg C, 6.69 ± 0.32 Pg C, 25.40 ± 1.49 Pg C, and 16.32 ± 0.41 Pg C, respectively. When all terrestrial ecosystems are taken into account, the country's total carbon pool is 89.27 ± 1.05 Pg C. The carbon density of the forests, shrublands, and grasslands exhibited a strong correlation with…

Establishing the timescale of early land plant evolution is essential for testing hypotheses on the coevolution of land plants and Earth's System. The sparseness of early land plant megafossils and stratigraphic controls on their distribution make the fossil record an unreliable guide, leaving only the molecular clock. However, the application of molecular clock methodology is challenged by the current impasse in attempts to resolve the evolutionary relationships among the living bryophytes and tracheophytes. Here, we establish a timescale for early land plant evolution that integrates over topological uncertainty by exploring the impact of competing hypotheses on bryophyte-tracheophyte relationships, among other variables, on divergence time estimation. We codify 37 fossil calibrations for Viridiplantae following best practice. We apply these calibrations in a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analysis of a phylogenomic dataset encompassing the diversity of Embryophyta and their relatives within Viridiplantae. Topology and dataset sizes have little impact on age estimates, with…

(CSA), is calculated to ∼0.38 to 1.54 million years ago (Mya). Analysis of genic collinearity reveals that the tea genome is the product of two rounds of whole-genome duplications (WGDs) that occurred ∼30 to 40 and ∼90 to 100 Mya. We provide evidence that these WGD events, and subsequent paralogous duplications, had major impacts on the copy numbers of secondary metabolite genes, particularly genes critical to producing three key quality compounds: catechins, theanine, and caffeine. Analyses of transcriptome and phytochemistry data show that amplification and transcriptional divergence of genes encoding a large acyltransferase family and leucoanthocyanidin reductases are associated with the characteristic young leaf accumulation of monomeric galloylated catechins in tea, while functional divergence of a single member of the glutamine synthetase gene family yielded theanine synthetase. This genome sequence will facilitate understanding of tea genome evolution and tea metabolite pathways, and will promote germplasm utilization for breeding improved tea varieties.

Significance China has launched six key ecological restoration projects since the late 1970s, but the contribution of these projects to terrestrial C sequestration remains unknown. In this study we examined the ecosystem C sink in the project area (∼16% of the country’s land area) and evaluated the project-induced C sequestration. The total annual C sink in the project area between 2001 and 2010 was estimated to be 132 Tg C per y, over half of which (74 Tg C per y, 56%) was caused by the implementation of the six projects. This finding indicates that the implementation of the ecological restoration projects in China has significantly increased ecosystem C sequestration across the country.

In a large proportion of cancer patients, CD8 T cells are excluded from the vicinity of cancer cells. The inability of CD8 T cells to reach tumor cells is considered an important mechanism of resistance to cancer immunotherapy. We show that, in human lung squamous-cell carcinomas, exclusion of CD8 T cells from tumor islets is correlated with a poor clinical outcome and with a low lymphocyte motility, as assessed by dynamic imaging on fresh tumor slices. In the tumor stroma, macrophages mediate lymphocyte trapping by forming long-lasting interactions with CD8 T cells. Using a mouse tumor model with well-defined stromal and tumor cell areas, macrophages were depleted with PLX3397, an inhibitor of colony-stimulating factor-1 receptor (CSF-1R). Our results reveal that a CSF-1R blockade enhances CD8 T cell migration and infiltration into tumor islets. Although this treatment alone has minor effects on tumor growth, its combination with anti-PD-1 therapy further increases the accumulation of CD8 T cells in close contact with malignant cells and delays tumor progression. These data suggest…

F-florbetaben to measure brain Aβ burden (ABB) in 20 healthy controls tested after a night of rested sleep (baseline) and after a night of sleep deprivation. We show that one night of sleep deprivation, relative to baseline, resulted in a significant increase in Aβ burden in the right hippocampus and thalamus. These increases were associated with mood worsening following sleep deprivation, but were not related to the genetic risk (APOE genotype) for Alzheimer's disease. Additionally, baseline ABB in a range of subcortical regions and the precuneus was inversely associated with reported night sleep hours. APOE genotyping was also linked to subcortical ABB, suggesting that different Alzheimer's disease risk factors might independently affect ABB in nearby brain regions. In summary, our findings show adverse effects of one-night sleep deprivation on brain ABB and expand on prior findings of higher Aβ accumulation with chronic less sleep.

Significance Here we demonstrate that Yersinia YopJ-induced murine macrophage death involves caspase-8–induced cleavage of both gasdermin D (GSDMD) and gasdermin E (GSDME). The ensuing cell death is rapid, morphologically is similar to pyroptosis, and induces IL-1 release. Recently, both GSDMD and GSDME were reported to be critical effectors of caspase-1/11–driven pyroptosis and caspase-3–dependent secondary necrosis, which prompted the redefinition of pyroptosis as cell death-mediated by gasdermin activation. Our work extends these studies and shows that activation of caspase-8 in the context of TAK1 inhibition results in cleavage of both GSDMD and GSDME, leading to pyroptotic-like cell death. Further study will be needed to determine whether caspase-8 cleaves GSDMD directly or via intermediate substrates.

Significance Our work has revealed the nature of local chemical order and has established its significant relationship to the intrinsic and extrinsic stacking fault energy in CrCoNi medium-entropy solid-solution alloys, whose combination of strength, ductility, and toughness properties approaches the best on record. These findings highlight the general need to discern how critical the role of local chemical ordering is in dictating the mechanical of properties of medium- and high-entropy alloys. Our results highlight the possibility of tuning order in disorder to ultimately achieve the science-based design and optimization of new high-entropy alloy systems with specifically desired combinations of macroscale mechanical properties.

= 0.54). At the neural level, we found a pattern of functional brain connectivity related to high-creative thinking ability consisting of frontal and parietal regions within default, salience, and executive brain systems. In a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis, we show that this neural model can reliably predict the creative quality of ideas generated by novel participants within the sample. Furthermore, in a series of external validation analyses using data from two independent task fMRI samples and a large task-free resting-state fMRI sample, we demonstrate robust prediction of individual creative thinking ability from the same pattern of brain connectivity. The findings thus reveal a whole-brain network associated with high-creative ability comprised of cortical hubs within default, salience, and executive systems-intrinsic functional networks that tend to work in opposition-suggesting that highly creative people are characterized by the ability to simultaneously engage these large-scale brain networks.

A biodegradable drug delivery system (DDS) is one the most promising therapeutic strategies for cancer therapy. Here, we propose a unique concept of light activation of black phosphorus (BP) at hydrogel nanostructures for cancer therapy. A photosensitizer converts light into heat that softens and melts drug-loaded hydrogel-based nanostructures. Drug release rates can be accurately controlled by light intensity, exposure duration, BP concentration, and hydrogel composition. Owing to sufficiently deep penetration of near-infrared (NIR) light through tissues, our BP-based system shows high therapeutic efficacy for treatment of s.c. cancers. Importantly, our drug delivery system is completely harmless and degradable in vivo. Together, our work proposes a unique concept for precision cancer therapy by external light excitation to release cancer drugs. If these findings are successfully translated into the clinic, millions of patients with cancer will benefit from our work.

This paper examines the effect of both cumulative and transitory exposures to air pollution for the same individuals over time on cognitive performance by matching a nationally representative longitudinal survey and air quality data in China according to the exact time and geographic locations of the cognitive tests. We find that long-term exposure to air pollution impedes cognitive performance in verbal and math tests. We provide evidence that the effect of air pollution on verbal tests becomes more pronounced as people age, especially for men and the less educated. The damage on the aging brain by air pollution likely imposes substantial health and economic costs, considering that cognitive functioning is critical for the elderly for both running daily errands and making high-stake decisions.

< 0.001), respectively, and an almost 1% increase in agricultural labor productivity, while it only leads to a statistically insignificant 0.02% decrease in crop yields. The same pattern was also found using other independently collected data sources from China and an international panel analysis of 74 countries from the 1960s to the 2000s. While economic growth has been associated with increasing farm size in many other countries, in China this relationship has been distorted by land and migration policies, leading to the persistence of small farm size in China. Removing these distortions would decrease agricultural chemical use by 30-50% and the environmental impact of those chemicals by 50% while doubling the total income of all farmers including those who move to urban areas. Removing policy distortions is also likely to complement other remedies to the overuse problem, such as easing farmer's access to modern technologies and knowledge, and improving environmental regulation and enforcement.

The scale of economic growth in China during the past three decades is unprecedented in modern human history. China is now the world’s second largest economic entity, next to the United States. However, this fast economic growth puts China’s environment under increasing stresses. China can be viewed as a massive “laboratory” with complex interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems, providing an excellent opportunity to examine how environmental changes and intensive human economic activities influence natural systems. This special feature explores the impacts of climate change and human activities on the structure and functioning of ecosystems, with emphasis on quantifying the magnitude and distribution of carbon (C) pools and C sequestration in China’s terrestrial ecosystems. We also document how species diversity, species traits, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) stoichiometry mediate ecosystem C pool and vegetation production. This overview paper introduces the background and scientific significance of the research project, presents the underlying conceptual…

Significance We increasingly rely on global models to project impacts of humans and climate on water resources. How reliable are these models? While past model intercomparison projects focused on water fluxes, we provide here the first comprehensive comparison of land total water storage trends from seven global models to trends from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, which have been likened to giant weighing scales in the sky. The models underestimate the large decadal (2002–2014) trends in water storage relative to GRACE satellites, both decreasing trends related to human intervention and climate and increasing trends related primarily to climate variations. The poor agreement between models and GRACE underscores the challenges remaining for global models to capture human or climate impacts on global water storage trends.

Two primary goals of psychological science should be to understand what aspects of human psychology are universal and the way that context and culture produce variability. This requires that we take into account the importance of culture and context in the way that we write our papers and in the types of populations that we sample. However, most research published in our leading journals has relied on sampling WEIRD (Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic) populations. One might expect that our scholarly work and editorial choices would by now reflect the knowledge that Western populations may not be representative of humans generally with respect to any given psychological phenomenon. However, as we show here, almost all research published by one of our leading journals, Psychological Science , relies on Western samples and uses these data in an unreflective way to make inferences about humans in general. To take us forward, we offer a set of concrete proposals for authors, journal editors, and reviewers that may lead to a psychological science that is more…

Despite evidence from experimental grasslands that plant diversity increases biomass production and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage, it remains unclear whether this is true in natural ecosystems, especially under climatic variations and human disturbances. Based on field observations from 6,098 forest, shrubland, and grassland sites across China and predictions from an integrative model combining multiple theories, we systematically examined the direct effects of climate, soils, and human impacts on SOC storage versus the indirect effects mediated by species richness (SR), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and belowground biomass (BB). We found that favorable climates (high temperature and precipitation) had a consistent negative effect on SOC storage in forests and shrublands, but not in grasslands. Climate favorability, particularly high precipitation, was associated with both higher SR and higher BB, which had consistent positive effects on SOC storage, thus offsetting the direct negative effect of favorable climate on SOC. The indirect effects of climate on SOC…

The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments,…

A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico's Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions…

Fluorescence imaging is a method of real-time molecular tracking in vivo that has enabled many clinical technologies. Imaging in the shortwave IR (SWIR; 1,000-2,000 nm) promises higher contrast, sensitivity, and penetration depths compared with conventional visible and near-IR (NIR) fluorescence imaging. However, adoption of SWIR imaging in clinical settings has been limited, partially due to the absence of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved fluorophores with peak emission in the SWIR. Here, we show that commercially available NIR dyes, including the FDA-approved contrast agent indocyanine green (ICG), exhibit optical properties suitable for in vivo SWIR fluorescence imaging. Even though their emission spectra peak in the NIR, these dyes outperform commercial SWIR fluorophores and can be imaged in the SWIR, even beyond 1,500 nm. We show real-time fluorescence imaging using ICG at clinically relevant doses, including intravital microscopy, noninvasive imaging in blood and lymph vessels, and imaging of hepatobiliary clearance, and show increased contrast compared with NIR…

Significance Increased mortality of honey bee colonies has been attributed to several factors but is not fully understood. The herbicide glyphosate is expected to be innocuous to animals, including bees, because it targets an enzyme only found in plants and microorganisms. However, bees rely on a specialized gut microbiota that benefits growth and provides defense against pathogens. Most bee gut bacteria contain the enzyme targeted by glyphosate, but vary in whether they possess susceptible versions and, correspondingly, in tolerance to glyphosate. Exposing bees to glyphosate alters the bee gut community and increases susceptibility to infection by opportunistic pathogens. Understanding how glyphosate impacts bee gut symbionts and bee health will help elucidate a possible role of this chemical in colony decline.

Hydropower has been the leading source of renewable energy across the world, accounting for up to 71% of this supply as of 2016. This capacity was built up in North America and Europe between 1920 and 1970 when thousands of dams were built. Big dams stopped being built in developed nations, because the best sites for dams were already developed and environmental and social concerns made the costs unacceptable. Nowadays, more dams are being removed in North America and Europe than are being built. The hydropower industry moved to building dams in the developing world and since the 1970s, began to build even larger hydropower dams along the Mekong River Basin, the Amazon River Basin, and the Congo River Basin. The same problems are being repeated: disrupting river ecology, deforestation, losing aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, releasing substantial greenhouse gases, displacing thousands of people, and altering people's livelihoods plus affecting the food systems, water quality, and agriculture near them. This paper studies the proliferation of large dams in developing countries…

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the…

Significance Rechargeable lithium metal battery (RLMB) is the holy grail of high-energy-density batteries. If lithium metal anode (LMA) could be combined with 5-V LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 cathode, energy density could exceed 600 Wh/kg based on the cathode and anode electrode mass. Despite such promises, 5-V RLMB is still a vacant research space so far due to the unavailability of electrolytes which simultaneously satisfy a wide enough electrochemical stability window, good compatibility with LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 , and superior reversibility of LMA. In this work, a class of full-fluoride (FF) electrolyte is invented for 5-V RLMB which not only has good compatibility with cathode and a wide stability window but also possesses the capability to make LMA more stable and reversible.

Drug interactions, including drug-drug interactions (DDIs) and drug-food constituent interactions (DFIs), can trigger unexpected pharmacological effects, including adverse drug events (ADEs), with causal mechanisms often unknown. Several computational methods have been developed to better understand drug interactions, especially for DDIs. However, these methods do not provide sufficient details beyond the chance of DDI occurrence, or require detailed drug information often unavailable for DDI prediction. Here, we report development of a computational framework DeepDDI that uses names of drug-drug or drug-food constituent pairs and their structural information as inputs to accurately generate 86 important DDI types as outputs of human-readable sentences. DeepDDI uses deep neural network with its optimized prediction performance and predicts 86 DDI types with a mean accuracy of 92.4% using the DrugBank gold standard DDI dataset covering 192,284 DDIs contributed by 191,878 drug pairs. DeepDDI is used to suggest potential causal mechanisms for the reported ADEs of 9,284 drug pairs, and…

Drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity, and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through 16S rRNA amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome and causes increased abundance and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes are correlated with these shifts in community composition. Finally, inoculation experiments with monoderm isolates indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can…

However, the SOC change differed among the major agricultural regions: SOC increased in all major agronomic regions except in Northeast China. The SOC sequestration was largely attributed to increased organic inputs driven by economics and policy: while higher root biomass resulting from enhanced crop productivity by chemical fertilizers predominated before 2000, higher residue inputs following the large-scale implementation of crop straw/stover return policy took over thereafter. The SOC change was negatively related to N inputs in East China, suggesting that the excessive N inputs, plus the shallowness of plow layers, may constrain the future C sequestration in Chinese croplands. Our results indicate that cropland SOC sequestration can be achieved through effectively manipulating economic and policy incentives to farmers.

Suspected fractures are among the most common reasons for patients to visit emergency departments (EDs), and X-ray imaging is the primary diagnostic tool used by clinicians to assess patients for fractures. Missing a fracture in a radiograph often has severe consequences for patients, resulting in delayed treatment and poor recovery of function. Nevertheless, radiographs in emergency settings are often read out of necessity by emergency medicine clinicians who lack subspecialized expertise in orthopedics, and misdiagnosed fractures account for upward of four of every five reported diagnostic errors in certain EDs. In this work, we developed a deep neural network to detect and localize fractures in radiographs. We trained it to accurately emulate the expertise of 18 senior subspecialized orthopedic surgeons by having them annotate 135,409 radiographs. We then ran a controlled experiment with emergency medicine clinicians to evaluate their ability to detect fractures in wrist radiographs with and without the assistance of the deep learning model. The average clinician's sensitivity…

Depression, the most prevalent mental illness, is underdiagnosed and undertreated, highlighting the need to extend the scope of current screening methods. Here, we use language from Facebook posts of consenting individuals to predict depression recorded in electronic medical records. We accessed the history of Facebook statuses posted by 683 patients visiting a large urban academic emergency department, 114 of whom had a diagnosis of depression in their medical records. Using only the language preceding their first documentation of a diagnosis of depression, we could identify depressed patients with fair accuracy [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], approximately matching the accuracy of screening surveys benchmarked against medical records. Restricting Facebook data to only the 6 months immediately preceding the first documented diagnosis of depression yielded a higher prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.72) for those users who had sufficient Facebook data. Significant prediction of future depression status was possible as far as 3 months before its first documentation. We found that…

The idea that noncrop habitat enhances pest control and represents a win-win opportunity to conserve biodiversity and bolster yields has emerged as an agroecological paradigm. However, while noncrop habitat in landscapes surrounding farms sometimes benefits pest predators, natural enemy responses remain heterogeneous across studies and effects on pests are inconclusive. The observed heterogeneity in species responses to noncrop habitat may be biological in origin or could result from variation in how habitat and biocontrol are measured. Here, we use a pest-control database encompassing 132 studies and 6,759 sites worldwide to model natural enemy and pest abundances, predation rates, and crop damage as a function of landscape composition. Our results showed that although landscape composition explained significant variation within studies, pest and enemy abundances, predation rates, crop damage, and yields each exhibited different responses across studies, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing in landscapes with more noncrop habitat but overall showing no consistent trend.…

A classic thesis is that scientific achievement exhibits a "Matthew effect": Scientists who have previously been successful are more likely to succeed again, producing increasing distinction. We investigate to what extent the Matthew effect drives the allocation of research funds. To this end, we assembled a dataset containing all review scores and funding decisions of grant proposals submitted by recent PhDs in a €2 billion granting program. Analyses of review scores reveal that early funding success introduces a growing rift, with winners just above the funding threshold accumulating more than twice as much research funding (€180,000) during the following eight years as nonwinners just below it. We find no evidence that winners' improved funding chances in subsequent competitions are due to achievements enabled by the preceding grant, which suggests that early funding itself is an asset for acquiring later funding. Surprisingly, however, the emergent funding gap is partly created by applicants, who, after failing to win one grant, apply for another grant less often.

) domains (<1 Mb), that is, regions that preferentially interact internally [topologically associating domains (TADs)] and are central to gene regulation. There is growing evidence that TADs are formed by active extrusion of chromatin loops by cohesin, whereas compartmentalization is established according to local chromatin states. Here, we use polymer simulations to examine how loop extrusion and compartmental segregation work collectively and potentially interfere in shaping global chromosome organization. A model with differential attraction between euchromatin and heterochromatin leads to phase separation and reproduces compartmentalization as observed in Hi-C. Loop extrusion, essential for TAD formation, in turn, interferes with compartmentalization. Our integrated model faithfully reproduces Hi-C data from puzzling experimental observations where altering loop extrusion also led to changes in compartmentalization. Specifically, depletion of chromatin-associated cohesin reduced TADs and revealed finer compartments, while increased processivity of cohesin strengthened large TADs…

Significance We propose a surfactant-assisted method to synthesize single-atom iron catalysts (SA-Fe/NG) supported on nitrogen-doped graphitic carbons, and experimentally demonstrated that the SA-Fe/NG catalyst possesses extremely outstanding catalytic activities for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in both acidic and alkaline media. Impressively, both the SA-Fe/NG-based acidic proton exchange membrane fuel cell and Zn-air battery show excellent performance. Combining experimental results and density-functional calculations, we reveal that the origin of high-ORR activity of SA-Fe/NG is from the Fe-pyrrolic-N 4 active species. The universal surfactant-assisted method can be easily extended to synthesis of other single-atom catalysts, and unveiling the origin of high-ORR activity of SA-Fe/NG will open an approach for developing other heterogeneous catalysts.

We examine patient gender disparities in survival rates following acute myocardial infarctions (i.e., heart attacks) based on the gender of the treating physician. Using a census of heart attack patients admitted to Florida hospitals between 1991 and 2010, we find higher mortality among female patients who are treated by male physicians. Male patients and female patients experience similar outcomes when treated by female physicians, suggesting that unique challenges arise when male physicians treat female patients. We further find that male physicians with more exposure to female patients and female physicians have more success treating female patients.

Significance We found direct and definitive evidence for surface-exposed water ice in the lunar polar regions. The abundance and distribution of ice on the Moon are distinct from those on other airless bodies in the inner solar system such as Mercury and Ceres, which may be associated with the unique formation and evolution process of our Moon. These ice deposits might be utilized as an in situ resource in future exploration of the Moon.

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE.…

Soil microbes that colonize plant roots and are responsive to differences in plant genotype remain to be ascertained for agronomically important crops. From a very large-scale longitudinal field study of 27 maize inbred lines planted in three fields, with partial replication 5 y later, we identify root-associated microbiota exhibiting reproducible associations with plant genotype. Analysis of 4,866 samples identified 143 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) whose variation in relative abundances across the samples was significantly regulated by plant genotype, and included five of seven core OTUs present in all samples. Plant genetic effects were significant amid the large effects of plant age on the rhizosphere microbiome, regardless of the specific community of each field, and despite microbiome responses to climate events. Seasonal patterns showed that the plant root microbiome is locally seeded, changes with plant growth, and responds to weather events. However, against this background of variation, specific taxa responded to differences in host genotype. If shown to have…

Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate…

Salt pollution and human-accelerated weathering are shifting the chemical composition of major ions in fresh water and increasing salinization and alkalinization across North America. We propose a concept, the freshwater salinization syndrome, which links salinization and alkalinization processes. This syndrome manifests as concurrent trends in specific conductance, pH, alkalinity, and base cations. Although individual trends can vary in strength, changes in salinization and alkalinization have affected 37% and 90%, respectively, of the drainage area of the contiguous United States over the past century. Across 232 United States Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring sites, 66% of stream and river sites showed a statistical increase in pH, which often began decades before acid rain regulations. The syndrome is most prominent in the densely populated eastern and midwestern United States, where salinity and alkalinity have increased most rapidly. The syndrome is caused by salt pollution (e.g., road deicers, irrigation runoff, sewage, potash), accelerated weathering and soil cation…

ABSTRACT The frontoparietal control network (FPCN) plays a central role in executive control. It has been predominantly viewed as a unitary domain general system. Here, we examined patterns of FPCN functional connectivity (FC) across multiple conditions of varying cognitive demands, in order to test for FPCN heterogeneity. We identified two distinct subsystems within the FPCN based on hierarchical clustering and machine learning classification analyses of within-FPCN FC patterns. These two FPCN subsystems exhibited distinct patterns of FC the default network (DN) and the dorsal attentional network (DAN). This 2-fold FPCN differentiation was observed across four independent data sets, across 9 different conditions (rest and 8 tasks), as well as in meta-analytic co-activation patterns. The extent of FPCN differentiation varied across conditions, suggesting flexible adaptation to task demands. These findings reveal a flexible and heterogeneous FPCN organization that may in part emerge from separable DN and DAN processing streams.

Activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome induces maturation of IL-1β and IL-18, both validated targets for treating acute and chronic inflammatory diseases. Here, we demonstrate that OLT1177, an orally active β-sulfonyl nitrile molecule, inhibits activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome. In vitro, nanomolar concentrations of OLT1177 reduced IL-1β and IL-18 release following canonical and noncanonical NLRP3 inflammasome activation. The molecule showed no effect on the NLRC4 and AIM2 inflammasomes, suggesting specificity for NLRP3. In LPS-stimulated human blood-derived macrophages, OLT1177 decreased IL-1β levels by 60% and IL-18 by 70% at concentrations 100-fold lower in vitro than plasma concentrations safely reached in humans. OLT1177 also reduced IL-1β release and caspase-1 activity in freshly obtained human blood neutrophils. In monocytes isolated from patients with cryopyrin-associated periodic syndrome (CAPS), OLT1177 inhibited LPS-induced IL-1β release by 84% and 36%. Immunoprecipitation and FRET analysis demonstrated that OLT1177 prevented NLRP3-ASC, as well as NLRP3-caspase-1…

Our understanding of phylogenetic relationships among bony fishes has been transformed by analysis of a small number of genes, but uncertainty remains around critical nodes. Genome-scale inferences so far have sampled a limited number of taxa and genes. Here we leveraged 144 genomes and 159 transcriptomes to investigate fish evolution with an unparalleled scale of data: >0.5 Mb from 1,105 orthologous exon sequences from 303 species, representing 66 out of 72 ray-finned fish orders. We apply phylogenetic tests designed to trace the effect of whole-genome duplication events on gene trees and find paralogy-free loci using a bioinformatics approach. Genome-wide data support the structure of the fish phylogeny, and hypothesis-testing procedures appropriate for phylogenomic datasets using explicit gene genealogy interrogation settle some long-standing uncertainties, such as the branching order at the base of the teleosts and among early euteleosts, and the sister lineage to the acanthomorph and percomorph radiations. Comprehensive fossil calibrations date the origin of all major fish…

Gut bacteria can affect key aspects of host fitness, such as development, fecundity, and lifespan, while the host, in turn, shapes the gut microbiome. However, it is unclear to what extent individual species versus community interactions within the microbiome are linked to host fitness. Here, we combinatorially dissect the natural microbiome of Drosophila melanogaster and reveal that interactions between bacteria shape host fitness through life history tradeoffs. Empirically, we made germ-free flies colonized with each possible combination of the five core species of fly gut bacteria. We measured the resulting bacterial community abundances and fly fitness traits, including development, reproduction, and lifespan. The fly gut promoted bacterial diversity, which, in turn, accelerated development, reproduction, and aging: Flies that reproduced more died sooner. From these measurements, we calculated the impact of bacterial interactions on fly fitness by adapting the mathematics of genetic epistasis to the microbiome. Development and fecundity converged with higher diversity,…

Significance The gut microbiota affects several physiological processes, including gut motility. Here we observed that germ-free mice have an immature enteric nervous system (ENS) that is normalized upon colonization with a normal microbiota. We identified the mechanism of communication between the microbiota and enteric neurons as the initiation of serotonin release and subsequent activation of the 5-HT 4 receptor. This demonstrates a strong interaction between the microbiota and the ENS and indicates potential mechanisms linking microbial dysbiosis to gastrointestinal disorders. The ability to modulate the microbiota, e.g., by diet, will open new perspectives of research in neurogastroenterology.

The American tropics (the Neotropics) are the most species-rich realm on Earth, and for centuries, scientists have attempted to understand the origins and evolution of their biodiversity. It is now clear that different regions and taxonomic groups have responded differently to geological and climatic changes. However, we still lack a basic understanding of how Neotropical biodiversity was assembled over evolutionary timescales. Here we infer the timing and origin of the living biota in all major Neotropical regions by performing a cross-taxonomic biogeographic analysis based on 4,450 species from six major clades across the tree of life (angiosperms, birds, ferns, frogs, mammals, and squamates), and integrate >1.3 million species occurrences with large-scale phylogenies. We report an unprecedented level of biotic interchange among all Neotropical regions, totaling 4,525 dispersal events. About half of these events involved transitions between major environmental types, with a predominant directionality from forested to open biomes. For all taxonomic groups surveyed here, Amazonia is…

Significance The understanding of a catalytic reaction starts with understanding its first elementary step. Surprisingly, despite the large number of studies, it is unclear whether one common or two different first intermediates control the selectivity of CO 2 electroreduction to formate and CO. We settle this controversy for Cu, which is best known for its unique capacity to synthesize C 1+ products but is just emerging as a superior earth-abundant catalyst for CO and formate. We provide solid experimental and theoretical support of the one common first-intermediate (Hori’s) model, the first intermediate being carboxylate. This outcome is an essential milestone toward accurate specification of the reaction descriptors in the growing effort to accelerate the discovery of a viable CO 2 electroreduction catalyst.

The oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is critical to solar production of fuels, but the reaction mechanism underlying the performance for a best OER catalyst, Fe-doped NiOOH [(Ni,Fe)OOH], remains highly controversial. We used grand canonical quantum mechanics to predict the OER mechanisms including kinetics and thus overpotentials as a function of Fe content in (Ni,Fe)OOH catalysts. We find that density functional theory (DFT) without exact exchange predicts that addition of Fe does not reduce the overpotential much. However, DFT with exact exchange predicts dramatic improvement in performance for (Ni,Fe)OOH, leading to an overpotential of 0.42 V and a Tafel slope of 23 mV/decade (dec), in good agreement with experiments, 0.3-0.4 V and 30 mV/dec. We reveal that the high spin [Formula: see text] Fe(IV) leads to efficient formation of an active O radical intermediate, while the closed shell [Formula: see text] Ni(IV) catalyzes the subsequent O-O coupling, and thus it is the synergy between Fe and Ni that delivers the optimal performance for OER.

(L.) Merr.] with remarkable accuracy. We also present an explanation mechanism, using the top-K high-resolution feature maps that isolate the visual symptoms used to make predictions. This unsupervised identification of visual symptoms provides a quantitative measure of stress severity, allowing for identification (type of foliar stress), classification (low, medium, or high stress), and quantification (stress severity) in a single framework without detailed symptom annotation by experts. We reliably identified and classified several biotic (bacterial and fungal diseases) and abiotic (chemical injury and nutrient deficiency) stresses by learning from over 25,000 images. The learned model is robust to input image perturbations, demonstrating viability for high-throughput deployment. We also noticed that the learned model appears to be agnostic to species, seemingly demonstrating an ability of transfer learning. The availability of an explainable model that can consistently, rapidly, and accurately identify and quantify foliar stresses would have significant implications in scientific…

-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

With quantum computers of significant size now on the horizon, we should understand how to best exploit their initially limited abilities. To this end, we aim to identify a practical problem that is beyond the reach of current classical computers, but that requires the fewest resources for a quantum computer. We consider quantum simulation of spin systems, which could be applied to understand condensed matter phenomena. We synthesize explicit circuits for three leading quantum simulation algorithms, using diverse techniques to tighten error bounds and optimize circuit implementations. Quantum signal processing appears to be preferred among algorithms with rigorous performance guarantees, whereas higher-order product formulas prevail if empirical error estimates suffice. Our circuits are orders of magnitude smaller than those for the simplest classically infeasible instances of factoring and quantum chemistry, bringing practical quantum computation closer to reality.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once-for example, communication within a group rather than person to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes.…

Ductility, i.e., uniform strain achievable in uniaxial tension, diminishes for materials with very high yield strength. Even for the CrCoNi medium-entropy alloy (MEA), which has a simple face-centered cubic (FCC) structure that would bode well for high ductility, the fine grains processed to achieve gigapascal strength exhaust the strain hardening ability such that, after yielding, the uniform tensile strain is as low as ∼2%. Here we purposely deploy, in this MEA, a three-level heterogeneous grain structure (HGS) with grain sizes spanning the nanometer to micrometer range, imparting a high yield strength well in excess of 1 GPa. This heterogeneity results from this alloy's low stacking fault energy, which facilitates corner twins in recrystallization and stores deformation twins and stacking faults during tensile straining. After yielding, the elastoplastic transition through load transfer and strain partitioning among grains of different sizes leads to an upturn of the strain hardening rate, and, upon further tensile straining at room temperature, corner twins evolve into…

Montane species worldwide are shifting upslope in response to recent temperature increases. These upslope shifts are predicted to lead to mountaintop extinctions of species that live only near mountain summits, but empirical examples of populations that have disappeared are sparse. We show that recent warming constitutes an "escalator to extinction" for birds on a remote Peruvian mountain-high-elevation species have declined in both range size and abundance, and several previously common mountaintop residents have disappeared from the local community. Our findings support projections that warming will likely drive widespread extirpations and extinctions of high-elevation taxa in the tropical Andes. Such climate change-driven mountaintop extirpations may be more likely in the tropics, where temperature seems to exert a stronger control on species' range limits than in the temperate zone. In contrast, we show that lowland bird species at our study site are expanding in range size as they shift their upper limits upslope and may thus benefit from climate change.

Abstract Little is known about the amount and infectiousness of influenza virus shed into exhaled breath. This contributes to uncertainty about the importance of airborne influenza transmission. We screened 355 symptomatic volunteers with acute respiratory illness and report 142 cases with confirmed influenza infection who provided 218 paired nasopharyngeal (NP) and 30-minute breath samples (coarse >5 μm and fine <5 μm fractions) on days 1 to 3 post symptom onset. We assessed viral RNA copy number for all samples and cultured NP swabs and fine aerosols. We recovered infectious virus from 52 (39%) of the fine aerosols and 150 (89%) of the NP swabs with valid cultures. The geometric mean RNA copy numbers were 3.8×10 4 /30-min fine, 1.2×10 4 /30-min coarse aerosol sample, and 8.2×10 8 per NP swab. Fine and coarse aerosol viral RNA was positively associated with body mass index (fine p<0.05, coarse p<0.10) and number of coughs (fine p<0.001, coarse p<0.01) and negatively associated with increasing days since symptom onset (fine p<0.05 to p<0.01, coarse p<0.10) in adjusted models. Fine…

Meeting the global food demand of roughly 10 billion people by the middle of the 21st century will become increasingly challenging as the Earth's climate continues to warm. Earlier studies suggest that once the optimum growing temperature is exceeded, mean crop yields decline and the variability of yield increases even if interannual climate variability remains unchanged. Here, we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with future temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in the world's major maize-producing and -exporting countries under 2 °C and 4 °C of global warming. We find that as the global mean temperature increases, absent changes in temperature variability or breeding gains in heat tolerance, the coefficient of variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere to values much larger than present-day values. This higher CV is due both to an increase in the SD of yields and a decrease in mean yields. For the top four maize-exporting countries, which account for 87% of global maize exports, the probability…

The development of safe and efficacious gene vectors has limited greatly the potential for therapeutic treatments based on messenger RNA (mRNA). Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) formed by an ionizable cationic lipid (here DLin-MC3-DMA), helper lipids (distearoylphosphatidylcholine, DSPC, and cholesterol), and a poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) lipid have been identified as very promising delivery vectors of short interfering RNA (siRNA) in different clinical phases; however, delivery of high-molecular weight RNA has been proven much more demanding. Herein we elucidate the structure of hEPO modified mRNA-containing LNPs of different sizes and show how structural differences affect transfection of human adipocytes and hepatocytes, two clinically relevant cell types. Employing small-angle scattering, we demonstrate that LNPs have a disordered inverse hexagonal internal structure with a characteristic distance around 6 nm in presence of mRNA, whereas LNPs containing no mRNA do not display this structure. Furthermore, using contrast variation small-angle neutron scattering, we show that one of the…

Acoustic tweezers use sound radiation forces to manipulate matter without contact. They provide unique characteristics compared with the more established optical tweezers, such as higher trapping forces per unit input power and the ability to manipulate objects from the micrometer to the centimeter scale. They also enable the trapping of a wide range of sample materials in various media. A dramatic advancement in optical tweezers was the development of holographic optical tweezers (HOT) which enabled the independent manipulation of multiple particles leading to applications such as the assembly of 3D microstructures and the probing of soft matter. Now, 20 years after the development of HOT, we present the realization of holographic acoustic tweezers (HAT). We experimentally demonstrate a 40-kHz airborne HAT system implemented using two 256-emitter phased arrays and manipulate individually up to 25 millimetric particles simultaneously. We show that the maximum trapping forces are achieved once the emitting array satisfies Nyquist sampling and an emission phase discretization below…

Island biogeography theory posits that species richness increases with island size and decreases with isolation. This logic underpins much conservation policy and regulation, with preference given to conserving large, highly connected areas, and relative ambivalence shown toward protecting small, isolated habitat patches. We undertook a global synthesis of the relationship between the conservation value of habitat patches and their size and isolation, based on 31 systematic conservation planning studies across four continents. We found that small, isolated patches are inordinately important for biodiversity conservation. Our results provide a powerful argument for redressing the neglect of small, isolated habitat patches, for urgently prioritizing their restoration, and for avoiding simplistic application of island biogeography theory in conservation decisions.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a progressive inflammatory demyelinating disease of the CNS of unknown cause that remains incurable. Inflammasome-associated caspases mediate the maturation and release of the proinflammatory cytokines IL-1β and IL-18 and activate the pore-forming protein gasdermin D (GSDMD). Inflammatory programmed cell death, pyroptosis, was recently shown to be mediated by GSDMD. Here, we report molecular evidence for GSDMD-mediated inflammasome activation and pyroptosis in both myeloid cells (macrophages/microglia) and, unexpectedly, in myelin-forming oligodendrocytes (ODCs) in the CNS of patients with MS and in the MS animal model, experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). We observed inflammasome activation and pyroptosis in human microglia and ODCs in vitro after exposure to inflammatory stimuli and demonstrate caspase-1 inhibition by the small-molecule inhibitor VX-765 in both cell types. GSDMD inhibition by siRNA transduction suppressed pyroptosis in human microglia. VX-765 treatment of EAE animals reduced the expression of inflammasome- and…

We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and "intensity-loss rate" function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared…

Significance Blighted and vacant urban land is a widespread and potentially risky environmental condition encountered by millions of people every day. About 15% of the land in US cities is deemed vacant or abandoned, translating into an area roughly the size of Switzerland: over 3 million hectares of otherwise beneficial spaces remain neglected. Urban residents, especially in low-income neighborhoods, point to these spaces as primary threats to their health and safety. Cities continue to seek meaningful, evidence-based interventions for remediating vacant land. Standardized processes for the restoration of vacant urban land were experimentally tested on a citywide scale and found to significantly reduce gun violence, crime, and fear.

Multilayer neural networks are among the most powerful models in machine learning, yet the fundamental reasons for this success defy mathematical understanding. Learning a neural network requires optimizing a nonconvex high-dimensional objective (risk function), a problem that is usually attacked using stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Does SGD converge to a global optimum of the risk or only to a local optimum? In the former case, does this happen because local minima are absent or because SGD somehow avoids them? In the latter, why do local minima reached by SGD have good generalization properties? In this paper, we consider a simple case, namely two-layer neural networks, and prove that-in a suitable scaling limit-SGD dynamics is captured by a certain nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) that we call distributional dynamics (DD). We then consider several specific examples and show how DD can be used to prove convergence of SGD to networks with nearly ideal generalization error. This description allows for "averaging out" some of the complexities of the landscape of…

) promoted myofibroblast transdifferentiation with down-regulation of type I collagen in human scleral fibroblasts. Importantly, the antihypoxia drugs salidroside and formononetin down-regulated HIF-1α expression as well as the phosphorylation levels of eIF2α and mTOR, slowing experimental myopia progression without affecting normal ocular growth in guinea pigs. Furthermore, eIF2α phosphorylation inhibition suppressed experimental myopia, whereas mTOR phosphorylation induced myopia in normal mice. Collectively, these findings defined an essential role of hypoxia in scleral ECM remodeling and myopia development, suggesting a therapeutic approach to control myopia by ameliorating hypoxia.

Stress granules are higher order assemblies of nontranslating mRNAs and proteins that form when translation initiation is inhibited. Stress granules are thought to form by protein-protein interactions of RNA-binding proteins. We demonstrate RNA homopolymers or purified cellular RNA forms assemblies in vitro analogous to stress granules. Remarkably, under conditions representative of an intracellular stress response, the mRNAs enriched in assemblies from total yeast RNA largely recapitulate the stress granule transcriptome. We suggest stress granules are formed by a summation of protein-protein and RNA-RNA interactions, with RNA self-assembly likely to contribute to other RNP assemblies wherever there is a high local concentration of RNA. RNA assembly in vitro is also increased by GR and PR dipeptide repeats, which are known to increase stress granule formation in cells. Since GR and PR dipeptides are involved in neurodegenerative diseases, this suggests that perturbations increasing RNA-RNA assembly in cells could lead to disease.

Sound mental health-a critical facet of human wellbeing-has the potential to be undermined by climate change. Few large-scale studies have empirically examined this hypothesis. Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health. To do so, we couple meteorological and climatic data with reported mental health difficulties drawn from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents between 2002 and 2012. We find that shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 °C and 30 °C to >30 °C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5% points, that 1°C of 5-year warming associates with a 2% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4% point increase in this metric. Our analyses provide added quantitative support for the conclusion that environmental stressors produced by climate change pose threats to human mental health.

Societies are complex systems, which tend to polarize into subgroups of individuals with dramatically opposite perspectives. This phenomenon is reflected-and often amplified-in online social networks, where, however, humans are no longer the only players and coexist alongside with social bots-that is, software-controlled accounts. Analyzing large-scale social data collected during the Catalan referendum for independence on October 1, 2017, consisting of nearly 4 millions Twitter posts generated by almost 1 million users, we identify the two polarized groups of Independentists and Constitutionalists and quantify the structural and emotional roles played by social bots. We show that bots act from peripheral areas of the social system to target influential humans of both groups, bombarding Independentists with violent contents, increasing their exposure to negative and inflammatory narratives, and exacerbating social conflict online. Our findings stress the importance of developing countermeasures to unmask these forms of automated social manipulation.

Origami has been employed to build deployable mechanical metamaterials through folding and unfolding along the crease lines. Deployable metamaterials are usually flexible, particularly along their deploying and collapsing directions, which unfortunately in many cases leads to an unstable deployed state, i.e., small perturbations may collapse the structure along the same deployment path. Here we create an origami-inspired mechanical metamaterial with on-demand deployability and selective collapsibility through energy analysis. This metamaterial has autonomous deployability from the collapsed state and can be selectively collapsed along two different paths, embodying low stiffness for one path and substantially high stiffness for another path. The created mechanical metamaterial yields load-bearing capability in the deployed direction while possessing great deployability and collapsibility. The principle in this work can be utilized to design and create versatile origami-inspired mechanical metamaterials that can find many applications.

PD-1 (programmed cell death-1) is the central inhibitory receptor regulating CD8 T cell exhaustion during chronic viral infection and cancer. Interestingly, PD-1 is also expressed transiently by activated CD8 T cells during acute viral infection, but the role of PD-1 in modulating T cell effector differentiation and function is not well defined. To address this question, we examined the expression kinetics and role of PD-1 during acute lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection of mice. PD-1 was rapidly up-regulated in vivo upon activation of naive virus-specific CD8 T cells within 24 h after LCMV infection and in less than 4 h after peptide injection, well before any cell division had occurred. This rapid PD-1 expression by CD8 T cells was driven predominantly by antigen receptor signaling since infection with a LCMV strain with a mutation in the CD8 T cell epitope did not result in the increase of PD-1 on antigen-specific CD8 T cells. Blockade of the PD-1 pathway using anti-PD-L1 or anti-PD-1 antibodies during the early phase of acute LCMV infection increased mTOR…

The insurance hypothesis, stating that biodiversity can increase ecosystem stability, has received wide research and political attention. Recent experiments suggest that climate change can impact how plant diversity influences ecosystem stability, but most evidence of the biodiversity-stability relationship obtained to date comes from local studies performed under a limited set of climatic conditions. Here, we investigate how climate mediates the relationships between plant (taxonomical and functional) diversity and ecosystem stability across the globe. To do so, we coupled 14 years of temporal remote sensing measurements of plant biomass with field surveys of diversity in 123 dryland ecosystems from all continents except Antarctica. Across a wide range of climatic and soil conditions, plant species pools, and locations, we were able to explain 73% of variation in ecosystem stability, measured as the ratio of the temporal mean biomass to the SD. The positive role of plant diversity on ecosystem stability was as important as that of climatic and soil factors. However, we also found a…

Emerging findings suggest that compromised cellular bioenergetics and DNA repair contribute to the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), but their role in disease-defining pathology is unclear. We developed a DNA repair-deficient 3xTgAD/Polβ +/− mouse that exacerbates major features of human AD including phosphorylated Tau (pTau) pathologies, synaptic dysfunction, neuronal death, and cognitive impairment. Here we report that 3xTgAD/Polβ +/− mice have a reduced cerebral NAD + /NADH ratio indicating impaired cerebral energy metabolism, which is normalized by nicotinamide riboside (NR) treatment. NR lessened pTau pathology in both 3xTgAD and 3xTgAD/Polβ +/− mice but had no impact on amyloid β peptide (Aβ) accumulation. NR-treated 3xTgAD/Polβ +/− mice exhibited reduced DNA damage, neuroinflammation, and apoptosis of hippocampal neurons and increased activity of SIRT3 in the brain. NR improved cognitive function in multiple behavioral tests and restored hippocampal synaptic plasticity in 3xTgAD mice and 3xTgAD/Polβ +/− mice. In general, the deficits between genotypes and the benefits…

Western United States wildfire increases have been generally attributed to warming temperatures, either through effects on winter snowpack or summer evaporation. However, near-surface air temperature and evaporative demand are strongly influenced by moisture availability and these interactions and their role in regulating fire activity have never been fully explored. Here we show that previously unnoted declines in summer precipitation from 1979 to 2016 across 31-45% of the forested areas in the western United States are strongly associated with burned area variations. The number of wetting rain days (WRD; days with precipitation ≥2.54 mm) during the fire season partially regulated the temperature and subsequent vapor pressure deficit (VPD) previously implicated as a primary driver of annual wildfire area burned. We use path analysis to decompose the relative influence of declining snowpack, rising temperatures, and declining precipitation on observed fire activity increases. After accounting for interactions, the net effect of WRD anomalies on wildfire area burned was more than 2.5…

Achieving the upper limits of face identification accuracy in forensic applications can minimize errors that have profound social and personal consequences. Although forensic examiners identify faces in these applications, systematic tests of their accuracy are rare. How can we achieve the most accurate face identification: using people and/or machines working alone or in collaboration? In a comprehensive comparison of face identification by humans and computers, we found that forensic facial examiners, facial reviewers, and superrecognizers were more accurate than fingerprint examiners and students on a challenging face identification test. Individual performance on the test varied widely. On the same test, four deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs), developed between 2015 and 2017, identified faces within the range of human accuracy. Accuracy of the algorithms increased steadily over time, with the most recent DCNN scoring above the median of the forensic facial examiners. Using crowd-sourcing methods, we fused the judgments of multiple forensic facial examiners by averaging…

Although there has been considerable debate about whether paternal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) transmission may coexist with maternal transmission of mtDNA, it is generally believed that mitochondria and mtDNA are exclusively maternally inherited in humans. Here, we identified three unrelated multigeneration families with a high level of mtDNA heteroplasmy (ranging from 24 to 76%) in a total of 17 individuals. Heteroplasmy of mtDNA was independently examined by high-depth whole mtDNA sequencing analysis in our research laboratory and in two Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments and College of American Pathologists-accredited laboratories using multiple approaches. A comprehensive exploration of mtDNA segregation in these families shows biparental mtDNA transmission with an autosomal dominantlike inheritance mode. Our results suggest that, although the central dogma of maternal inheritance of mtDNA remains valid, there are some exceptional cases where paternal mtDNA could be passed to the offspring. Elucidating the molecular mechanism for this unusual mode of inheritance will…

Significance Wildfires are a major source of fine particulate matter (diameter <2.5 µm; PM 2.5 ), which is a health hazard. Since the mid-1980s, the total US area burned by wildfires has been increasing, with fires in the Northwest United States accounting for ∼50–60% of that increase. In the Northwest United States, we find a positive trend in the 98th quantile of PM 2.5 in contrast to other areas of the country where PM 2.5 is decreasing. This positive trend in PM 2.5 is closely associated with total carbon (a marker of wildfire emissions). These results support model predictions of increasing wildfire occurrence and PM 2.5 in a warming world.

The extent to which survey experiments conducted with nonrepresentative convenience samples are generalizable to target populations depends critically on the degree of treatment effect heterogeneity. Recent inquiries have found a strong correspondence between sample average treatment effects estimated in nationally representative experiments and in replication studies conducted with convenience samples. We consider here two possible explanations: low levels of effect heterogeneity or high levels of effect heterogeneity that are unrelated to selection into the convenience sample. We analyze subgroup conditional average treatment effects using 27 original-replication study pairs (encompassing 101,745 individual survey responses) to assess the extent to which subgroup effect estimates generalize. While there are exceptions, the overwhelming pattern that emerges is one of treatment effect homogeneity, providing a partial explanation for strong correspondence across both unconditional and conditional average treatment effect estimates.

19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full…

Significance Inflammation and immunosuppression are dominant features of cancer progression. In the tumor microenvironment, macrophages produce interleukin-1β (IL-1β), which subsequently recruits myeloid cells from the bone marrow. In mice deficient in IL-1β or in wild-type mice treated with anti–IL-1β Abs, implanted breast cancer tumors regress. Regression is due to decreased tumor-related immunosuppression, meditated mainly by macrophages, and increased antitumor immunity, mediated by elevated dendritic cell function and activated cytotoxic CD8 lymphocytes. Although anti–PD-1 reduces tumor growth, the combination of anti–IL-1β plus anti–PD-1 abrogated the tumors completely. These observations support clinical trials of blocking IL-1β in cancer and that anti–IL-1β is a checkpoint inhibitor.

Understanding how plants survive drought and cold is increasingly important as plants worldwide experience dieback with drought in moist places and grow taller with warming in cold ones. Crucial in plant climate adaptation are the diameters of water-transporting conduits. Sampling 537 species across climate zones dominated by angiosperms, we find that plant size is unambiguously the main driver of conduit diameter variation. And because taller plants have wider conduits, and wider conduits within species are more vulnerable to conduction-blocking embolisms, taller conspecifics should be more vulnerable than shorter ones, a prediction we confirm with a plantation experiment. As a result, maximum plant size should be short under drought and cold, which cause embolism, or increase if these pressures relax. That conduit diameter and embolism vulnerability are inseparably related to plant size helps explain why factors that interact with conduit diameter, such as drought or warming, are altering plant heights worldwide.