The 50 most-cited articles in American Economic Review, 2016

This paper analyzes productivity growth in seventeen OECD countries over the period 1979-88. A nonparametric programming method (activity analysis) is used to compute Malmquist productivity indexes. These are decomposed into two component measures, namely, technical change and efficiency change. The authors find that U.S. productivity growth is slightly higher than average, all of which is due to technical change. Japan's productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change. Copyright 1994 by American Economic Association.

We propose a measure of systemic risk, Δ CoVaR, defined as the change in the value at risk of the financial system conditional on an institution being under distress relative to its median state. Our estimates show that characteristics such as leverage, size, maturity mismatch, and asset price booms significantly predict Δ CoVaR. We also provide out-of-sample forecasts of a countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk, and show that the 2006:IV value of this measure would have predicted more than one-third of realized Δ CoVaR during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. (JEL C58, E32, G01, G12, G17, G20, G32)

The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment offered randomly selected families housing vouchers to move from high-poverty housing projects to lower-poverty neighborhoods. We analyze MTO's impacts on children's long-term outcomes using tax data. We find that moving to a lower-poverty neighborhood when young (before age 13) increases college attendance and earnings and reduces single parenthood rates. Moving as an adolescent has slightly negative impacts, perhaps because of disruption effects. The decline in the gains from moving with the age when children move suggests that the duration of exposure to better environments during childhood is an important determinant of children’s long-term outcomes.

Social scientists and policy analysts have long expressed concern about the extent of intergenerational income mobility in the United States, but remarkably little empirical evidence is available. The few existing estimates of the intergenerational correlation in income have been biased downward by measurement error, unrepresentative samples, or both. New estimates based on intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics imply that the intergenerational correlation in long-run income is at least 0.4, indicating dramatically less mobility than suggested by earlier research. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.

Development economists have been preoccupied with the problem of increasing the size of the GNP pie to the relative neglect of its distribution. Despite the recent disenchantment with the viewpoint that all classes share in the benefits of industrial growth, empirical data on the distribution of income, business opportunity, and economic power are in short supply. Many of the studies on entrepreneurship and economic development, when they are not apologetics for ruthless capitalist exploitation as Paul Baran suggests, extol the achievements of the capitalist entrepreneur without examining class origins and monopoly advantage. Joseph Schumpeter sees entrepreneurs, irrespective of class origin, as heroic figures, with the dream and will to found a private kingdom, to conquer adversity, to achieve for its own sake, and to experience the joy of creation. For Gustav Papanek (1967), the private entrepreneur, who is frugal, diligent, far-sighted, remarkably able, and willing to take political risks, is in large part responsible for the success of Pakistan in achieving rapid…

This paper links the sharp drop in US manufacturing employment after 2000 to a change in US trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries more exposed to the change experience greater employment loss, increased imports from China, and higher entry by US importers and foreign-owned Chinese exporters. At the plant level, shifts toward less labor-intensive production and exposure to the policy via input-output linkages also contribute to the decline in employment. Results are robust to other potential explanations of employment loss, and there is no similar reaction in the European Union, where policy did not change. (JEL D72, E24, F13, F16, L24, L60, P33)

A recent article by Akira Takayama discusses an earlier paper by Harvey Averch and Leland L. Johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities. Although Takayama (p. 255) agrees with Averch and Johnson's general conclusions a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return, he criticizes the argument as being confusing, ambiguous, and in error. Takayama then attempts a clarification, and presents a new formulation which leads to the result quoted above. This comment will discuss several of Takayama's criticisms in addition to showing that the so-called A-J cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both Averch and Johnson and Takayama.1 We will show that the very assumptions used to prove the Effect, by defining the region of X, require an assumption that the Effect exists in the first place.

The purpose of this paper is to settle the controversy surrounding consumer's surplus' and, by so doing, to validate its use as a tool of welfare economics. I will show that observed consumer's surplus can be rigorously utilized to estimate the unobservable compensating and equivalent variations-the correct theoretical measures of the welfare impact of changes in prices and income on an individual. I derive precise upper and lower bounds on the percentage errors of approximating the compensating and equivalent variations with consumer's surplus. These bounds can be explicitly calculated from observable demand data, and it is clear that in most applications the error of approximation will be very small. In fact, the error will often be overshadowed by the errors involved in estimating the demand curve. The results in no way depend upon arguments about the constancy of the marginal utility of income. Consequently, this paper supplies specific empirical criteria which can replace the apologetic caveats frequently employed by those who presently apply consumer's surplus. Moreover, the…

Most analyses treat global warning as a single-agent problem. The present study presents the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE) model. By disaggregating into countries, the model analyzes different national strategies in climate-change policy: pure market solutions, efficient cooperative outcomes, and noncooperative equilibria. This study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies; that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries; and that high-income countries may be the major losers from cooperation. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.

From 1980 to 2000, the rise in the US college/high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage, high rent cities. This paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting. While local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting, it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities. Changes in cities' wages, rents, and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone. (JEL D31, I26, J24, J31, J61, R23)

set out the problem of using taxation and government production to maximize a social welfare function. We derived the first-order conditions, and considered the argument for efficiency in aggregate production. Here in Part II we consider the structure of optimal taxes in more detail. Part I contained five sections, and Part II begins at Section VI. In the sixth and seventh sections we consider commodity taxation in one- and many-consumer economies. In the eighth section we consider other kinds of taxes; and in the ninth, public consumption. In the tenth section we consider a rigorous treatment of the problem, giving a sufficient condition for the validity of the first-order conditions. To begin, we shall restate the notation and basic problem. Notation

In most cities, the taxi industry is highly regulated and has restricted entry. Ride sharing services, such as Uber and Lyft, which use mobile internet technology to connect passengers and drivers, have begun to compete with traditional taxis. This paper examines the efficiency of ride sharing services vis-a-vis taxis. In most cities with data available, UberX drivers spend a significantly higher fraction of their time, and drive a substantially higher share of miles, with a passenger in their car than do taxi drivers. Reasons for this efficiency advantage are explored.

We provide a systematic empirical study of the diffusion and adoption patterns of data-driven decision making (DDD) in the U.S. Using data collected by the Census Bureau for a large representative sample of manufacturing plants, we find that DDD rates nearly tripled (11%-30%) between 2005 and 2010. This rapid diffusion, along with results from a companion paper, are consistent with case-based evidence that DDD tends to be productivity-enhancing. Yet certain plants are significantly more likely to adopt than others. Key correlates of adoption are size, presence of potential complements such as information technology and educated workers, and firm learning.

We examine the impact of a positive and policy-driven change in economic resources available in utero and during childhood. We focus on the introduction of the Food Stamp Program, which was rolled out across counties between 1961 and 1975. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to assemble unique data linking family background and county of residence in early childhood to adult health and economic outcomes. Our findings indicate access to food stamps in childhood leads to a significant reduction in the incidence of metabolic syndrome and, for women, an increase in economic self-sufficiency. (JEL I12, I38, J24)

In recent years there has been growing interest in the mixture of psychology and economics that has come to be known as “behavioral economics.” As is true with many seemingly overnight success stories, this one has been brewing for quite a while. My first paper on the subject was published in 1980, hot on the heels of Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) blockbuster on prospect theory, and there were earlier forerunners, most notably Simon (1955, 1957) and Katona (1951, 1953). The rise of behavioral economics is sometimes characterized as a kind of paradigm-shifting revolution within economics, but I think that is a misreading of the history of economic thought. It would be more accurate to say that the methodology of behavioral economics returns economic thinking to the way it began, with Adam Smith, and continued through the time of Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s. In spite of this early tradition within the field, the behavioral approach to economics met with considerable resistance within the profession until relatively recently. In this essay I begin by documenting…

This paper provides estimates of the correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons. Intergenerational data from the National Longitudinal Survey are used. Earlier studies, conducted for the United States, report elasticities of children's earnings with respect to parent's earnings of 0.2 or less, suggesting extensive integenerational mobility. These estimates, however, are biased downward by error-contaminated measures of lifetime economic status. Estimates presented in this paper correct for the problem of measurement error and find the intergenerational correlation in income to be on the order of 0.4. This suggests considerably less intergenerational mobility than previously believed. (JEL J62)

Accounting rates of return are frequently used as indices of monopoly power and market performance by economists and lawyers.' Such a procedure is valid only to the extent that profits are indeed monopoly profits, accounting profits are in fact economic profits, and the accounting rate of return equals the economic rate of return. The large volume of research investigating the profits-concentration relationship uniformly relies on accounting rates of return, such as the ratio of reported profits to total assets or to stockholders' equity as the measure of profitability to be related to concentration.2 Many users of accounting rates of return seem well aware that profits as reported by accountants may not be consistent from firm to firm or industry to industry and may not correspond to economists' definitions of profits. Likewise, they recognize that accountants' statements of assets, hence also stockholders' equity, may fail to correspond to economically acceptable definitions, because accounting practices do not provide for the capitalization of certain activities such as research…

A study of the impact of government size on economic performance and growth is important. Theoretically, one point of view suggests that a larger government size is likely to be detrimental to efficiency and economic growth because, for example, (i) government operations are often conducted inefficiently, (ii) the regulatory process imposes excessive burdens and costs on the economic system, and (iii) many of government's fiscal and monetary policies tend to distort economic incentives and lower the productivity of the system. At the other extreme, one can identify some points of view that assign to the government a critical role in the process of economic development, and could argue that a larger government size is likely to be a more powerful engine of economic development. There are several arguments on which the latter point of view is based. These include, besides others, (i) role of the government in harmonizing conflicts between private and social interests, (ii) prevention of exploitation of the country by foreigners, and (iii) securing an increase in productive investment…

A recent article in this Review by Averch and Johnson [3] on the fair rate of return regulation in public utilities industries (or more generally regulated industries) attracted the attention of many economists. In essence, Averch-johnson argues that the introduction of an constraint of a fair rate of return type would induce the firm to invest more than the original profit maximizing value of capital, and this would create an inefficient allocation of inputs. In addition to frequent citations in verbal arguments, it has invited some thieoretical extensions by economists such as WVestfield [8] and Klevorick [5]. All of the writers seem to accept the basic theoretical foundations set by Averch and Johnson. For example, Klevorick [5] recently proposed that the fair rate of return should be inversely related to the size of the capital of a firm. The intuitive basis for this is apparent, for it in effect creates a penalty as the amount of capital used by the firm increases.' However, it seems to me that AverchJohnson's original arguments are sketchy and contain somewhat ambiguous logic…

In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to forward guidance as a central tool of monetary policy. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance has huge effects on current outcomes, and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance. We present a model in which the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets. When agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints, a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates. As a consequence, forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy. (JEL E21, E40, E50)

Two-moment decision models are consistent with expected utility maximization only if the choice set or the agent's preferences are restricted. All currently available restrictions, such as quadratic utility or normality, are either theoretically deficient and/or empirically rejected. This paper identifies another restriction which is sufficient to ensure consistency between the two approaches and confirms that it holds in many economic models. Implications of this restriction for moment model analysis are then derived. Copyright 1987 by American Economic Association.

China has defied the declining trend in domestic content in exports in many countries. This paper studies China's rising domestic content in exports using firm- and customs transaction-level data. The approach embraces firm heterogeneity and hence reduces aggregation bias. The study finds that the substitution of domestic for imported materials by individual processing exporters caused China's domestic content in exports to increase from 65 to 70 percent in the period 2000–2007. Such substitution was induced by the country's trade and investment liberalization, which deepened its engagement in global value chains and led to a greater variety of domestic materials becoming available at lower prices. (JEL F13, F14, L14, O19, O24, P31, P33)

We estimate the effect of temporary tax incentives on equipment investment using shifts in accelerated depreciation. Analyzing data for over 120,000 firms, we present three findings. First, bonus depreciation raised investment in eligible capital relative to ineligible capital by 10.4 percent between 2001 and 2004 and 16.9 percent between 2008 and 2010. Second, small firms respond 95 percent more than big firms. Third, firms respond strongly when the policy generates immediate cash flows, but not when cash flows only come in the future. This heterogeneity materially affects investment-weighted estimates and supports models in which financial frictions or fixed costs amplify investment responses. (JEL D21, D22, D92, G31, H25, H32)

This research explores the origins of observed differences in time preference across countries and regions. Exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that pre-industrial agro-climatic characteristics that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, triggered selection, adaptation and learning processes that generated a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era. Furthermore, the research establishes that these agro-climatic characteristics have had a culturally embodied impact on economic behavior such as technological adoption, education, saving, and smoking.

We propose a summary statistic for the economic well-being of people in a country. Our measure incorporates consumption, leisure, mortality, and inequality, first for a narrow set of countries using detailed micro data, and then more broadly using multi-country datasets. While welfare is highly correlated with GDP per capita, deviations are often large. Western Europe looks considerably closer to the United States, emerging Asia has not caught up as much, and many developing countries are further behind. Each component we introduce plays a significant role in accounting for these differences, with mortality being most important. (JEL D63, E21, E23, E24, I12, O57)

We explore the in- and out-of-sample robustness of tests for choice inconsistencies based on parameter restrictions in parametric models, focusing on tests proposed by Ketcham, Kuminoff, and Powers (2016). We argue that their nonparametric alternatives are inherently conservative with respect to detecting mistakes. We then show that our parametric model is robust to KKP's suggested specification checks, and that comprehensive goodness of fit measures perform better with our model than the expected utility model.Finally, we explore the robustness of our 2011 results to alternative normative assumptions highlighting the role of brand fixed effects and unobservable characteristics.

We study the effect of financial resources on decision-making. Low-income U.S. households are randomly assigned to receive an online survey before or after payday. The survey collects measures of cognitive function and administers risk and intertemporal choice tasks. The study design generates variation in cash, checking and savings balances, and expenditures. Before-payday participants behave as if they are more present-biased when making intertemporal choices about monetary rewards but not when making intertemporal choices about non-monetary real-effort tasks. Nor do we find before-after differences in risk-taking, the quality of decision-making, the performance in cognitive function tasks, or in heuristic judgments.

Utilizing a cross-sectional trade flow model of the type developed by Hans Linnemann and Jan Tinbergen, this study attempts to isolate empirically the major forces which have shaped European trade relations over the period 1951-67. We first estimate via the use of dummy variables the impact of the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) on member trade. For each year of the European integration period (1959-67), a crosssectional equation is estimated ancl used to test for the existence and approximate size of the respective integration effects. The equation is also calculated for the eight years prior to the integration period to obtain a clear picture of the forces which were at work before the formation of the EEC. Secondly, a base year equation is used to make projection estimates of the gross trade creation and European trade diversion effects of the two communities.

Several years ago, we attended an interdisciplinary seminar on what were purported to be biases in negotiation behavior. The economists, psychologists, and biologists present were mulling over the data when, suddenly, a prominent economist lit up. Ah, I see,' he said, is either or it's psychological. This formulation stuck in our minds, because it seemed to succinctly give voice to a tacit assumption held by many economists one that we think works to the detriment of economics, by isolating it from the relevant parts of biology, psychology, and the rest of the natural sciences. This assumption is that behavior is the state of nature, requiring no explanation. Explanations that invoke the cognitive processes that actually generate human choices are required only when behavior deviates from this state of nature. In this view, economics is grounded in assumptions of behavior, is theoretically constructed out of what logically follows from assuming behavior, and gains specificity by plugging in a variety of variables that are kept exogenous to economics, such as preferences. Merchants…

We show that gender diversity in corporate boards could improve firm value because of the contributions that women make to the board. Prior studies examine valuation effects of gender-diverse boards and reach mixed conclusions. To help resolve this conundrum, we consider how gender diversity could affect firm value, that is, what mechanisms could explain how female directors benefit corporate board performance. We hypothesize and provide evidence that women directors contribute to boards by offering specific functional expertise, often missing from corporate boards. The additional expertise increases board heterogeneity which Kim and Starks (2015) show can increase firm value.

This paper studies lying. An agent randomly picks a number from a known distribution. She can then report any number and receive a monetary payoff based only on her report. The paper presents a model of lying costs that generates hypotheses regarding behavior. In an experiment, we find that the highest fraction of lies is from reporting the maximal outcome, but some participants do not make the maximal lie. More participants lie partially when the experimenter cannot observe their outcomes than when the experimenter can verify the observed outcome. Partial lying increases when the prior probability of the highest outcome decreases. (JEL C91, D12, D90, Z13)

Antipoverty programs in developing countries are often difficult to implement; in particular, many governments lack the capacity to deliver payments securely to targeted beneficiaries. We evaluate the impact of biometrically authenticated payments infrastructure (“Smartcards”) on beneficiaries of employment (NREGS) and pen sion (SSP) programs in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, using a large-scale experiment that randomized the rollout of Smartcards over 157 subdistricts and 19 million people. We find that, while incompletely implemented, the new system delivered a faster, more predictable, and less corrupt NREGS payments process without adversely affecting program access. For each of these outcomes, treatment group distributions first-order stochastically dominated those of the control group. The investment was cost-effective, as time savings to NREGS beneficiaries alone were equal to the cost of the intervention, and there was also a significant reduction in the “leakage” of funds between the government and beneficiaries in both NREGS and SSP programs. Beneficiaries…

Here F(x) and G(x) are less-than cumulative probability distributionis where x is a continuous or discrete random variable representing the outcome of a prospect. The closed interval [a, b] is the sample space of both prospects. The integral shown in Rule 2 and those shown throughout the paper are Stieltjes integrals. Recall that the Stieltjes integral fb f(x)dg(x) exists if one of the functions f and g is continuous and the other has finite variation in [a, b]. Let D1, D2, and D3 be three sets of utility functions ?(x). D1 is the set containing all utility functions with 4(x) and +1(x) continuous, and 41(x) >0 for all xE[a, b]. D2 is the set with ?(x), ?1(x), ?2(x) continuous, and q$j(x)>0, 02(x)?O for all xC[a, b]. D3 is the set with ?(x), ?1(x), ?2(X), ?3(X) continuous, and +1(x) > 04 2(x) O O for all xC[a, b]. Here +1(x) denotes the ith derivative of +(x). Hadar and Russell proved that Rule 1 is valid for all ,CD1 and Rutle 2 is valid for all ED2. The authors point out that the set of probability distributions that can be ordered by means of second-degree stochastic dominance…

This paper examines the role of replication in empirical economic research. It presents the findings of a two-year study that collected programs and data from authors and attempted to replicate their published results. The research provides new and important information about the extent and causes of failures to replicate published results in economics. The findings suggest that inadvertent errors in published empirical articles are a commonplace, rather than a rare, occurence. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.

We estimate the effects of electricity shortages on Indian manufacturers, instrumenting with supply shifts from hydroelectric power availability. We estimate that India's average reported level of shortages reduces the average plant's revenues and producer surplus by 5 to 10 percent, but average productivity losses are significantly smaller because most inputs can be stored during outages. Shortages distort the plant size distribution, as there are significant economies of scale in generator costs and shortages more severely affect plants without generators. Simulations show that offering interruptible retail electricity contracts could substantially reduce the impacts of shortages. (JEL D24, L60, L94, O13, O14, Q41)

A growing body of evidence indicates that the U.S. economy has become less dynamic in recent years. This trend is evident in declining rates of gross job and worker flows as well as declining rates of entrepreneurship and young firm activity, and the trend is pervasive across industries, regions, and firm size classes. We describe the evidence on these changes in the U.S. economy by reviewing existing research. We then describe new empirical facts about the relationship between establishment-level productivity and employment growth, framing our results in terms of canonical models of firm dynamics and suggesting empirically testable potential explanations.

In my model of the evolution of honesty,1 I assumed the existence of a signal-a blush, perhaps-extreme values of which served to identify some individuals as being honest with certainty. Joseph Harrington notes that without this assumption, honest individuals have difficulty invading a population initially dominated by defectors. For readers who do not wish to work through the algebra in his comment, the argument is easily summarized in nontechnical terms. Suppose two honest mutants, A and B, arrive in an uncountably large population consisting entirely of dishonest persons. And suppose that the probability that an honest person exhibits an intense blush is, say, 0.999, while the corresponding probability for everyone else is only 0.001. When A sees an intense blush on the face of B, what will then be his estimate of the probability that B is honest? Assuming that A knows the laws of elementary probability and corrects for the base rate of honest persons in the population, it will be zero. When virtually everyone in the population is dishonest, even a person with an intense blush…

We examine the link between wage and consumption inequality using a life-cycle model incorporating consumption and family labor supply decisions. We derive analytical expressions for the dynamics of consumption, hours, and earnings of two earners in the presence of correlated wage shocks, nonseparability, progressive taxation, and asset accumulation. The model is estimated using panel data for hours, earnings, assets, and consumption. We focus on family labor supply as an insurance mechanism and find strong evidence of smoothing of permanent wage shocks. Once family labor supply, assets, and taxes are properly accounted for there is little evidence of additional insurance. (JEL D12, D14, D91, J22, J31)

We combine a theoretical discrete-choice model of vehicle purchases, an econometric analysis of electricity emissions, and the AP2 air pollution model to estimate the geographic variation in the environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles. The second-best electric vehicle purchase subsidy ranges from $2,785 in California to −$4,964 in North Dakota, with a mean of −$1,095. Ninety percent of local environmental externalities from driving electric vehicles in one state are exported to others, implying they may be subsidized locally, even when the environmental benefits are negative overall. Geographically differentiated subsidies can reduce deadweight loss, but only modestly. (JEL D12, D62, H23, L62, Q53, Q54, R11)

This paper estimates the incidence of state corporate taxes on the welfare of workers, landowners, and firm owners using variation in state corporate tax rates and apportionment rules. We develop a spatial equilibrium model with imperfectly mobile firms and workers. Firm owners may earn profits and be inframarginal in their location choices due to differences in location-specific productivities. We use the reduced-form effects of tax changes to identify and estimate incidence as well as the structural parameters governing these impacts. In contrast to standard open economy models, firm owners bear roughly 40 percent of the incidence, while workers and landowners bear 30–35 percent and 25–30 percent, respectively. (JEL H22, H25, H32, H71, R23, R51)